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A new war in the Balkans. Made in Russia

Preamble. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is a state in the Balkans that emerged after the breakup of Yugoslavia. It is a very complex federal country created as a result of the Dayton Peace Accords (1995), which ended the 1992-1995 war.

BiH consists of two main entities (entities):

The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), dominated by Bosniaks (Muslims) and Croats (Catholics), and Republika Srpska (RS), controlled by Serbs (Orthodox), who are traditionally aligned with Belgrade and Moscow.

There is also a separate administrative unit, the Brcko District, which has a special status and is jointly administered by both entities.

Republika Srpska (RS) constantly threatens to secede from BiH, and its president, Milorad Dodik, openly supports the idea of secession and accession to Serbia.

The official motive: "oppression of Serbs" and the desire for "independent governance". The real reason is the political influence of Belgrade and Moscow, which use RS to destabilise the region.

And for general understanding: Serbia is an imperialist, a cotton wool, but in the Balkans, like the Russians.

And now to the news itself - the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, was sentenced to a year in prison and banned from holding political office for six years. This event shook not only Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) but also Europe. Let me explain why

In fact, Moscow has already opened a second front - the West just hasn't realised it yet

Forget everything you have read about the Balkans in recent years. It's all a lie. The reality is much worse. Because Dodik is not a politician flirting with separatism, but a Russian puppet who has already been given the go-ahead

Assess the scale of the fucking mess that is happening in BiH

Dodik has officially signed laws that completely separate Republika Srpska from BiH. These are no longer just words - this is the legal registration of the collapse of the state.

Budapest (Putin's friends) and Belgrade (where the current president is the son of a Milosevic-era propagandist) have simultaneously stepped up their support for Dodik.

Special forces from Hungary have been spotted on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, disguised as "civilians" (Ukrainians - but fuck...)

And Russia hasn't been burned once - Moscow has already raised the issue of BiH at the UN Security Council on 6 March, which means only one thing: the Civilian Chekists want to legalise their scenario through the international arena, as they did in 2014 before the invasion of Ukraine

The West is in anabiosis. Europe expects that if the situation in BiH escalates, it will be something like a protracted political crisis. But our partners are thinking in terms of the 1990s and are therefore mistaken - Moscow is already preparing to act in the style of 2022.

This means there will be no compromises. Dodik will not just blackmail us with secession" - he will actually declare the independence of the RS.

The national security forces of BiH and the forces of the RS will start a confrontation, and the Serbian side will have the support of "unknown armed persons" (hello, "little green men" from Serbia or Russia).

After that, Moscow and Belgrade will launch a powerful information campaign about "illegal Western pressure" and "oppression of Serbs", which will mean the opening of a "second front" for the EU and NATO.
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